MLB 2008: NL West
The
National League is a little easier to predict than the AL, but not much and it is still just as intriguing. We'll start in
the NL West. This is again the most competitive division in baseball, with four
teams legitimately contending for the division title. The Arizona Diamondbacks
are my pick to win the division this year. They added an ace in Dan Haren to a
rotation that already boasts two former Cy-Young award winners, although Randy
Johnson is not what he once was. Brandon Webb, on the other hand, continues to
improve. Last year he won 18 games and sported an ERA of just shy over 3.00
with 194 Ks. Haren won 15 games on a weak Oakland team with an ERA just above
Webb's at 3.07. Haren and Webb's numbers are remarkably similar. Haren won 15
games, Webb 18. Haren's ERA was 3.07, Webb's 3.01. Haren strukout 192 batters
last year, Webb 194. Haren had a WHIP of 1.21, Webb had a 1.19 WHIP. The only
stark difference is that Webb had 4 complete games and one shut out last year
while Haren had none. Not a bad one, two punch. And even with Randy Johnson no
longer the sure fire Hall of Famer that he was his first go around with
Arizona, if he can stay healthy (a big if) he is good for at least 10 wins,
which isn't bad for your 4th or 5th starter. Doug Davis is a solid number 3 or
4 pitcher coming off his best season yet in the majors. Sophomore Micah Owings
is talented enough to win 12-15 games and should only improve as time goes on.
Arizona's offense is led by, in my opinion, the best all around player in the National League, Eric Byrnes. Byrnes hit .286 last season with 83 RBIs, 23 home runs and 50 stolen bases. He scored 103 runs and had an on base percentage of .353, which is above the league average. He is the unquestioned leader of a team that is very young and lacking in experience. That is not to say they lack talent. The team is chock full of untapped potential, particularly in outfielder Chris Young and first baseman Conor Jackson. The Diamondbacks do not have the most potent offense in the league, but they have also not hit their potential yet either. They have one of the best rotations in the league and an offense that is going to have to be reckoned with soon enough.
The NL Wild Card winner from last season, the Colorado Rockies, sport a offense that will once again contest for the most prolific team. Led by MVP runner up Matt Holliday and Rookie of the Year runner up Troy Tulowitski, the Rockies have one of the best offenses in the majors. Holliday hit a ridiculous 137 RBIs last year with a .340 batting average to go along with his 37 home runs. His home run total was actually a little low compared with the rest of his stats, considering where he plays half his games (Humidor be damned), so look for those numbers to pick up this season. In his first full season in the majors after replacing every hunter's favorite shortstop Clint Barmes, Tulowitski had 99 RBIs, 24 home runs and sported a .291 average, all as a rookie at a traditionally powerless position. Throw Brad Hawpe, Garret Atkins and Todd Helton into the mix and you can see why they were so feared last year.
Unfortunately, even with the Humidor, playing at Coors Field has a negative affect on your pitching. Staff ace Jeff Francis did win 17 games last year, in part due to the fact that his team scores a load of runs. Francis sported an ERA of 4.22, which is certainly not bad for a Rockies pitcher. Unfortunately, that's where the good news stops. Not a single pitcher other than Francis currently on the team won more than 8 games last year, inclduing Kip Wells who played for Pittsburgh and Josh Towers, who played for Toronto. (Note: Wells is starting the year in the bullpen) Aaron Cook is a decent enough pitcher, but really only a #3 or 4 guy, not someone I'd want backing up my ace. They are going to struggle on the mound, but this is nothing they're not used to. They made it all the way to the World Series last year on hitting and Francis' pitching alone, so it's certainly not out of the question for them to do it again. They are going to compete with San Diego for the Wild Card again this year, as well as for second place in their own division, and they may not win either one.
San Diego, while not having the high flying offense that Colorado does, has a solid team once again this year. Their offense is led by hard hitting first baseman Adrian Gonzalez and shortstop Khalil Greene. However, San Diego's real talent lies in its pitching. The Padres' rotation is comprised of Cy-Young winners Jake Peavy and Greg Maddux, Chris Young, Randy Wolf and Justin Germano. Peavy is one of the top five pitchers in the majors and arguably the best in the NL (although that argument got a lot harder with the addition of Santana into the NL). Maddux, while getting up there in age and losing a bit of his former luster, is still a serious pitcher to contend with. The sure fire Hall of Famer is a lock for at least 12 wins a year. Big Unit, Jr. Chris Young is turning into a perennial All Star and Randy Wolf is about as good a #4 guy as you'll find. Germano could be the #3 pitcher on a lot of NL teams and is looking to improve this year. At the back end of the bullpen is the aging but still dominant all time saves leader Trevor Hoffman. He's no longer the best closer in the game, but he is still in the top 10 in the league. Even though San Diego's offense isn't as good as Colorado's, their pitching is heads and tails better and that is why I think they will beat them out for second in the division.
The Los Angeles Dodgers have a new skipper in town, former Yankees manager Joe Torre. They have a pitching rotation, when healthy, that can compete with any team in the NL, headed by Brad Penny, Derek Lowe and Chad Billingsley. After the departure of Eric Gagne, Takashi Saito cemented his place as one of the best closers in the game. Their offense is led by Russel Martin, who, after batting .293 with 87 RBIs, 19 homeruns and 21 steals, solidified himself as a top 3 catcher last year. He is also perhaps the most the versatile player in the league. Dodgers Third Base coach, and former Phillies shortstop Hall of Famer Larry Bowa, says that Martin could play his old position. Bill Bavasi, current GM in Seattle, says he is the best third baseman in the NL. He's a catcher that stole 21 times last year. What's that tell you?
The addition of Andruw Jones, despite having his worst year in the majors last year, seriously bolsters their lineup. Jones has been one of the best hitters in the majors in the last decade and is still only 31 years old and I am pretty confident that he will bounce back this year. Added to that are Jeff Kent, James Loney, Andre Ethier, Rafael Furcal, and leadoff specialist Juane Pierre, as well as Normar Garciaparra for at least 10 or 11 games. This is a very competitive and solid team from top to bottom. Unfortunately, their pitching is not the best in the division and their offense is not the best in the division. They do have the best closer in the West, but only so many games are won in the 9th inning. I predict that the Dodgers have a good year and wind up 4th in the division. Like I said, it's the best division in baseball.
The black sheep of the division family is San Francisco. To sum up the Giants, I tell this one story. Last week they played their full time starters and put ace Barry Zito on the mound against their AAA affiliate in a Spring Training exhibition game. They lost 4-3. Zito pitched 6 2/3 innings and gave up all four runs. The Giants were only able to score 3 runs against a bunch of minor league players. Their lineup is made up of newly acquired Aaron Rowand, Bengie Molina, Ray Durham, Randy Winn, Omar Vizquel, Rich Aurilia, Jose Castillo and Dave Roberts. Not a single player hit more than 90 RBIs last year. Rowand, in his best year ever, hit 89 RBIs on the highest scoring offense in the NL playing in hitter friendly Citizen's Bank Park. Rowand had a lot of protection arond him last year. This year, he is the best hitter. Rowand is a good player, but not as good as he was last year and definitely not as good to be considered the best player on the team. Rowand is a great guy to have in the locker room, something that is sorely needed to mend the wounds of the Barry Bonds era in San Fran, but even his team building locker room demeanor is not going to help this team hit.
The Giants pitching is not as bad as the hitting, and in all actuality, is not that bad in general. Barry Zito is still the ace on the team, and making the monstrous money that he is, he will likely be their ace for a long time to come. They have some very good up and coming young pitchers however. Noah Lowry, Matt Cain, and Tim Lincecum are all good, young pitchers who will only continue to get better with time. Lowry led the team last year with 14 wins, although he needs to get his WHIP down. Nevertheless, despite having some pitching potential, the Giants are going to be last in the West, and in all likelihood around the bottom of the NL. Let the post-Barry era begin.
Arizona's offense is led by, in my opinion, the best all around player in the National League, Eric Byrnes. Byrnes hit .286 last season with 83 RBIs, 23 home runs and 50 stolen bases. He scored 103 runs and had an on base percentage of .353, which is above the league average. He is the unquestioned leader of a team that is very young and lacking in experience. That is not to say they lack talent. The team is chock full of untapped potential, particularly in outfielder Chris Young and first baseman Conor Jackson. The Diamondbacks do not have the most potent offense in the league, but they have also not hit their potential yet either. They have one of the best rotations in the league and an offense that is going to have to be reckoned with soon enough.
The NL Wild Card winner from last season, the Colorado Rockies, sport a offense that will once again contest for the most prolific team. Led by MVP runner up Matt Holliday and Rookie of the Year runner up Troy Tulowitski, the Rockies have one of the best offenses in the majors. Holliday hit a ridiculous 137 RBIs last year with a .340 batting average to go along with his 37 home runs. His home run total was actually a little low compared with the rest of his stats, considering where he plays half his games (Humidor be damned), so look for those numbers to pick up this season. In his first full season in the majors after replacing every hunter's favorite shortstop Clint Barmes, Tulowitski had 99 RBIs, 24 home runs and sported a .291 average, all as a rookie at a traditionally powerless position. Throw Brad Hawpe, Garret Atkins and Todd Helton into the mix and you can see why they were so feared last year.
Unfortunately, even with the Humidor, playing at Coors Field has a negative affect on your pitching. Staff ace Jeff Francis did win 17 games last year, in part due to the fact that his team scores a load of runs. Francis sported an ERA of 4.22, which is certainly not bad for a Rockies pitcher. Unfortunately, that's where the good news stops. Not a single pitcher other than Francis currently on the team won more than 8 games last year, inclduing Kip Wells who played for Pittsburgh and Josh Towers, who played for Toronto. (Note: Wells is starting the year in the bullpen) Aaron Cook is a decent enough pitcher, but really only a #3 or 4 guy, not someone I'd want backing up my ace. They are going to struggle on the mound, but this is nothing they're not used to. They made it all the way to the World Series last year on hitting and Francis' pitching alone, so it's certainly not out of the question for them to do it again. They are going to compete with San Diego for the Wild Card again this year, as well as for second place in their own division, and they may not win either one.
San Diego, while not having the high flying offense that Colorado does, has a solid team once again this year. Their offense is led by hard hitting first baseman Adrian Gonzalez and shortstop Khalil Greene. However, San Diego's real talent lies in its pitching. The Padres' rotation is comprised of Cy-Young winners Jake Peavy and Greg Maddux, Chris Young, Randy Wolf and Justin Germano. Peavy is one of the top five pitchers in the majors and arguably the best in the NL (although that argument got a lot harder with the addition of Santana into the NL). Maddux, while getting up there in age and losing a bit of his former luster, is still a serious pitcher to contend with. The sure fire Hall of Famer is a lock for at least 12 wins a year. Big Unit, Jr. Chris Young is turning into a perennial All Star and Randy Wolf is about as good a #4 guy as you'll find. Germano could be the #3 pitcher on a lot of NL teams and is looking to improve this year. At the back end of the bullpen is the aging but still dominant all time saves leader Trevor Hoffman. He's no longer the best closer in the game, but he is still in the top 10 in the league. Even though San Diego's offense isn't as good as Colorado's, their pitching is heads and tails better and that is why I think they will beat them out for second in the division.
The Los Angeles Dodgers have a new skipper in town, former Yankees manager Joe Torre. They have a pitching rotation, when healthy, that can compete with any team in the NL, headed by Brad Penny, Derek Lowe and Chad Billingsley. After the departure of Eric Gagne, Takashi Saito cemented his place as one of the best closers in the game. Their offense is led by Russel Martin, who, after batting .293 with 87 RBIs, 19 homeruns and 21 steals, solidified himself as a top 3 catcher last year. He is also perhaps the most the versatile player in the league. Dodgers Third Base coach, and former Phillies shortstop Hall of Famer Larry Bowa, says that Martin could play his old position. Bill Bavasi, current GM in Seattle, says he is the best third baseman in the NL. He's a catcher that stole 21 times last year. What's that tell you?
The addition of Andruw Jones, despite having his worst year in the majors last year, seriously bolsters their lineup. Jones has been one of the best hitters in the majors in the last decade and is still only 31 years old and I am pretty confident that he will bounce back this year. Added to that are Jeff Kent, James Loney, Andre Ethier, Rafael Furcal, and leadoff specialist Juane Pierre, as well as Normar Garciaparra for at least 10 or 11 games. This is a very competitive and solid team from top to bottom. Unfortunately, their pitching is not the best in the division and their offense is not the best in the division. They do have the best closer in the West, but only so many games are won in the 9th inning. I predict that the Dodgers have a good year and wind up 4th in the division. Like I said, it's the best division in baseball.
The black sheep of the division family is San Francisco. To sum up the Giants, I tell this one story. Last week they played their full time starters and put ace Barry Zito on the mound against their AAA affiliate in a Spring Training exhibition game. They lost 4-3. Zito pitched 6 2/3 innings and gave up all four runs. The Giants were only able to score 3 runs against a bunch of minor league players. Their lineup is made up of newly acquired Aaron Rowand, Bengie Molina, Ray Durham, Randy Winn, Omar Vizquel, Rich Aurilia, Jose Castillo and Dave Roberts. Not a single player hit more than 90 RBIs last year. Rowand, in his best year ever, hit 89 RBIs on the highest scoring offense in the NL playing in hitter friendly Citizen's Bank Park. Rowand had a lot of protection arond him last year. This year, he is the best hitter. Rowand is a good player, but not as good as he was last year and definitely not as good to be considered the best player on the team. Rowand is a great guy to have in the locker room, something that is sorely needed to mend the wounds of the Barry Bonds era in San Fran, but even his team building locker room demeanor is not going to help this team hit.
The Giants pitching is not as bad as the hitting, and in all actuality, is not that bad in general. Barry Zito is still the ace on the team, and making the monstrous money that he is, he will likely be their ace for a long time to come. They have some very good up and coming young pitchers however. Noah Lowry, Matt Cain, and Tim Lincecum are all good, young pitchers who will only continue to get better with time. Lowry led the team last year with 14 wins, although he needs to get his WHIP down. Nevertheless, despite having some pitching potential, the Giants are going to be last in the West, and in all likelihood around the bottom of the NL. Let the post-Barry era begin.
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