April 2008

Season Full of Surprises

We are approaching the end of April which means that we are just about a entire month into the 2008 Major League Baseball season. So far this young season we have encountered our fair share of surprises.

For starters, who would have guessed that the Baltimore Orioles would be atop the American League East? Even better, who would have guessed that Tampa Bay would be tied with them? The O's and the Rays are tied with Boston for the top seed in the East, one and a half games up on the Yankees. The Toronto Blue Jays are sitting in the cellar, just three and a half games ack out of firstr. Tampa has won six in a row and that is with staff ace Scott Kazmir on the disabled list. Filling the void is last year's surprise James Shields with three wins and a 2.54 ERA, including a complete game shutout. They also have one of the youngest and most talented lineups in the game, led by B.J. Upton, Evan Longoria and Carlos Pena. Nonetheless, most of us expected the Rays to be better than usual.

Not so with Baltimore. After the loss of Miguel Tejada and Erik Bedard, everyone expected the O's to be one of the worst teams in the majors. Instead they are winning, led by starters Brian Burres and Matt Albers. Burres is currently sporting a 2.49 ERA and three wins, Albers a 1.65 ERA and two wins. Closer George Sherrill currently has nine saves on the year despite an ERA of 4.66. It's not always pretty but Sherrill gets the job done. He came over from Seattle in the Bedard deal and appears to have tipped the trade advantage to the east coast team. Nick Markakis and Brian Roberts are having their expected good year, but so are veterans Aubrey Huff (leads team in RBIs with 16) and catcher Ramon Hernandez. The Orioles' success typifies the surprising start to this new season.

In the Central, the team many people picked (including me) to win the World Series, the Detroit Tigers, have gotten off to an extremely sluggish start, losing seven of their first eight games. Their potent offense has been anything but up until just a week or so ago. The Tigers' pitching has been even worse. Ace Justin Verlander has just one win on the season and a 6.50 ERA. Beleaguered former ace Dontrelle Willis is currently on the DL, pitching only five innings and giving up four runs. The lone bright spot for Detroit's pitching has been minor league journeyman Armando Gallarraga, who has won two games so far, with an ERA of 1.50 and thirteen strikeouts in just eighteen innings. That being said, their bats have started to heat up. In just the past week Magglio Ordonez has hit three home runs and has ten RBIs. Newcomer Miguel Cabrera has two home runs and six RBIs. This team could explode at any moment and I still think has a great shot to win it all.

Another surprise is the abysmal start of Cleveland Indians' ace C.C. Sabathia. Sabathia has just one win on the season. In thirty-two innings he has given up twenty eight earned runs and walked seventeen batters. He has a league high ERA of 7.88. Fausto Carmona, despite an astounding twenty two walks in twenty eight innings, has pretty much picked up where he left off last season, with three wins and a 2.89 ERA. The surprising ace so far for the Indians is veteran Cliff Lee, with four wins and a ridiculous ERA of 0.28. Behind the solid pitching of Lee and a solid offense, Cleveland has managed to stay in second place behind dark horse Chicago.

Another surprise is in the NL West, where San Diego and Colorado are battling for last place. Even more surprising is that San Francisco is not only not in last place, but has actually won a game, despite Barry Zito winless with a 7.53 ERA. Young star Tim Lincecum leads the team with four wins and thirty-six strikeouts and I would argue has supplanted Zito as the ace of that team. Even more surprising is that they are actually hitting the ball a little; I said a little. Veteran catcher Bengie Molina leads the team with four home runs and sixteen RBIs. Aaron Rowand is batting .293 with ten RBIs and John Bowker has provided some pop to compliment the two veterans. This won't last. Lincecum will continue to pitch well and Rowand and Molina may continue to hit but the Padres and Rockies are not going to continue to play this poorly.

This brings us to the NL East, where the surprising upstart Florida Marlins are atop the division, one and a half games ahead of the Mets and Phillies. What is it about Florida and young talented lineups? Josh Willingham, Hanley Ramirez, Dan Uggla, Mike Jacobs, Jeremy Hermida and Jorge Cantu (yea, that's right) are all hittining the cover off the ball. Scott Olsen and Mark Hendrickson lead the team with three and four wins respectively. Once again, the Marlins prove that you cannot count them out and that you can actually succeed in this game without a mega payroll. Screw Billy Beane, someone should write a book about Florida's scouting department.

The Mets and Phillies have struggled to start season, in large part due to significant injuries and considerable slumps by some of their best players. Carlos Beltran, Carlos Delgado and Jose Reyes are all batting below .250. Of the big four, only David Wright is having a good year, batting .292 with four home runs and twenty-one RBIs. When the spark of your offense, your lead off man, is not getting on base, it makes it hard to generate runs. Likewise for the Phillies. Reigning MVP Jimmy Rollins has not started a game since April 9, as well as worthy leadoff man Shane Victorino, who returns to action this week. Former MVP Ryan Howard is batting a paltry .174 with five home runs and eleven RBIs. Howard also leads the league in strikeouts with thirty-seven, a year after setting the record for most strikeouts in a single season with one-hundred and ninety nine. Nevertheless, MVP hopefuls Chase Utley and Pat Burrell have been carrying this team on their back, with help from outfielder Jason Werth and backup catcher Chris Coste.

Pitching has also had its ups and downs for these Turnpike rivals. Newly acquired superstar Johan Santana has looked like the dominant force he is for much of the season but only has three wins, in large part due to a lack of offensive support. Beleagured former ace Pedro Martinez has again found himself on the disabled list and pitchers John Maine and Oliver Perez have looked spotty this season. The Mets' bullpen has been less than stellar so far. Of the eight relievers to have five or more innings of work this season, only four have ERAs less than 3.00. Of those four, only Billy Wagner has at least ten innings of work. The three relievers with the most innings for the Mets have an average ERA of 6.02.

The Phillies pitching, a source of much heart burn last year, continues to be a source of frustration this year. Adam Eaton, who had the highest ERA in the National League last year, started the season out beautifully, giving up no more than three runs in each of his first three starts. He has since come back down to earth, going five and three and two-thirds innings in each of his previous two starts, respectively. He has yet to record a victory, or a loss, this season. Last year's surprising star, rookie Kyle Kendrick, is going through a bit of a sophomore slump. He is 2-2 so far this season with a 5.13 ERA. He has looked very good at times and looked very shaky at others. The Phillies number one starter, Brett Myers, is having a frustrating year, largely due to the loss in his velocity (for more on Myers' struggles this year see my post earlier today on www.hotstovephilly.com).

That being said, true ace Cole Hamels, despite getting knocked around in his two previous starts, has an ERA of 2.75 with thirty strikeouts on the year. Seventh inning specialist J.C. Romero has yet to give up an earned run in over eleven innings. Set up man Tom Gordon, after having a rough start to the season, has settled down nicely and has an ERA of 2.08 and two wins over the past two weeks. New closer Brad "Lights Out" Lidge has been just that. Lidge has yet to give up an earned run this season and has four saves, with eight strikeouts in seven innings. Lidge has a higher strikeout per nine innings ratio than any other reliever in major league history. When Lidge is healthy (both mentally and physically) there is nobody in baseball better.

Perhaps just as surprising as Florida's success is Atlanta's lack of it. The Braves are only one and a half games back of the Mets and Phillies, but are a game under .500, despite being picked by many to win the division. Their pitching, when healthy, a problem this season, has been solid. Unfortunately, oft injured Mike Hampton is back on the DL and Tom Glavine is making his first trip to the disabled list in his career.  John Smoltz is banged up and will likely miss a couple starts. Closer Rafael Soriano only pitched four innings before also finding himself on the DL. That being said, when healthy, they've been very good. No starter has an ERA above four and this has kept them in every game. Mark Teixeira and Brian McCann got off to slow starts and third baseman Chipper Jones is, shocker here, banged up. Nevertheless, the Braves' offense has started to heat up in the past week or two, so look for them to make a surge.

One of the great things about baseball, and sports in general, is its ability to constantly surprise and amaze and I am looking forward to a season of just that.

The Big Hurt

Future Hall of Famer and former Philadelphia Phillie non-draft pick Frank Thomas was released by the Toronto Blue Jays on Sunday April 20th, one day after being benched for his lack of production and public criticism of manager John Gibbons.

While there is always the possibility that someone will take a flyer on the dangerous slugger, it appears that Thomas' illustrious, if not sometimes controversial, career has come to an end. There are few teams that are in serious contention in need of an every day designated hitter and it appears that, at least for now, Thomas refuses to play off the bench. There is also a crowded market for heavy hitting DH only players. Home run king Barry Bonds has yet to find a team willing to take on his circus and demeanor. Sluggers Mike Piazza and Sammy Sosa are also without a team. Bonds, Piazza and Sosa all have somewhat of a leg up on Thomas because they can all still play the field, if not on a regular basis. Thomas is a major defensive liability at first base, not to mention a serious risk of injuring himself.

It is unfortunate that one of the best hitters to ever play the game would end his career on such a note, but this type of incident is not without precedent for Thomas. After playing for the Chicago White Sox for sixteen years, the White Sox unceremoniously decided to not bring Thomas back for a seventeenth year. After signing with the Oakland Athletics Thomas publicly complained about the way his tenure with Chicago ended, saying that White Sox owner Jerry Reinsdorf did not even call him to tell him they would not be re-signing him.

"I've got a lot of respect for Jerry Reinsdorf, I do. But I really thought, the relationship we had over the last 16 years, he would have picked up the phone to say, `Big guy, we're moving forward. We're going somewhere different. We don't know your situation or what's going to happen.' I can live with that, I really can," Thomas said. "But treating me like some passing-by-player. I've got no respect for that."
He also knocked heads with manager and GM Kenny Williams over several provisions in his contract and felt the Sox should have just traded him after the playoffs in 2000. In response to Thomas' publicly calling him out, Williams called the slugger an "idiot" and said
"If he was any kind of a man, he would quit talking about things in the paper and return a phone call or come knock on someone's door. If I had the kind of problems evidently he had with me, I would go knock on his door."
On January 25, 2006, Thomas signed a one year deal with Oakland. He would go on to finish second behind his replacement in Chicago former Phillie Jim Thome as AL Comeback Player of the Year, but would win the award for Player's Choice Comeback Player of the Year.

Thomas' career was filled with many records and distinctions. From 1991-1997 he finished in the top ten in MVP voting every single year. He is only the second first baseman ever to win the MVP Award in two consecutive years ('93-'94). The other is Jimmie Foxx, in 1932 and 1933. He actually won the AL Comeback Player of the Year Award in 2000 and won the AL Batting Title in 1997. On June 28, 2007, Thomas hit his 500th home run in Minnesota (ironically the sight of his first home run), becoming just the 21st player in Major League history to ever do so. Thomas, along with Babe Ruth, Jimmie Foxx, Mel Ott, Ted Williams, Willie Mays, Hank Aaron, and later Alex Rodriguez, are the only players to ever hit 500 home runs and have a career batting average of .300 and above. He is also on a short list of players to hit 500 home runs and acrue at least 1600 walks. With him are the Babe, Mel Ott, Mickey Mantle, Ted Williams, and Barry Bonds. Thomas currently ranks number one all time in home runs as a designated hitter and eighteenth all time in home runs with 516. He ranks twenty-second all time with 1,685 RBIs and a .559 slugging percentage.

Thomas was the seventh overall pick of the 1989 MLB draft. Picked at number five that year, out of Simeon High School in Chicago Illinois, was Jeff Jackson, to the Philadelphia Phillies. Jackson was a highly tauted outfielder and the Phillies' management spent several months debating between whether they should take him or Thomas. Jackson never made it out of the minors. Thomas was, and still is, one of the all time greatest hitters to ever play the game. Just another in a long line of Phillie management blunders. Don't forget Von "Five for One" Hayes.

MLB 2008: NL East

We wrap up with my favorite division in baseball, simply because it's my division. The NL East is once again one of the more intriguing divisions in the majors. The rivalry between the Mets and the Phillies has once again heated up and is making for great theater. Flying under the radar are the Braves, who I think are going to surprise a lot of people.

The New York Mets made the biggest acquisition in years this past off season, trading for Twins superstar Johan Santana. The Mets now boast one of the best rotations in the league, although it is not without questions. Santana should win 20 games, will almost definitely win 15, and will make a strong run for the NL Cy-Young. Pedro Martinez, if healthy, will make for one of the best #2 pitchers in the majors. But Pedro has been anything but healthy in recent years and has a history of not getting along with fellow superstar pitchers. John Maine and Oliver Perez had great years last year, but it is still up in the air whether they can be consistent. In three of his first six seasons, Perez has posted an ERA above 5.00. All indications are that Maine is going to be a great pitcher for years to come, but this is only his second full season and all too many second year players fall into the sophomore slump. All four of them could very well be dominate and healthy all year, but the track record for that is just not there.

That being said, the offense is going to be good. Carlos Beltran, David Wright, Jose Reyes and Carlos Beltran make up an impressive and dangerous foursome. Ryan Church adds a serious power compliment and Moises Alou, if healthy, will 15 home runs and 65 RBIs. Not a bad lineup at all.

Their rivals right down the New Jersey Turnpike, the Philadelphia Phillies, had the most prolific offense in the NL last year. Led by NL MVP Jimmy Rollins, former NL MVP Ryan Howard, and potential 2008 NL MVP Chase Utley, the Phillies present a fearsome offense. Pat Burrell is always good for 30 home runs and 100 RBIs and Shane Victorino is always dangerous on the basepaths. The Phillies can hit, no doubt about it. Unfortunately, their pitching is not as strong.

The two guys at the top of the rotation, Brett Myers and Cole Hamels, are two really solid pitchers who can be, at times, lights out. Myers has had the best Spring Training of his career and All-Star Cole Hamels continues to improve from season to season. After that are Kyle Kendrick and Jamie Moyer. Kendrick had a really good season last year completely out of nowhere, but he is having a rough spring and could fall into the trap of the sophomore slump. Jamie Moyer is a solid and serviceable middle rotation guy. But he is also getting old and has a tendency to fall off as the season progresses. Then there is Adam Eaton. He was terrible last year and is having an equally bad spring and could be out of the 5th spot by May. New closer Brad Lidge is starting the season on the DL, which will put aging set up man/closer Flash Gordon in the spot temporarily. Lidge has been very shaky the past couple years and is going to have to prove himself this season.

Last year the Phillies did not pitch great, but the offense made up the difference. It's going to be hard to do that two years in a row, but certainly not out of the question. The offense could be that good.

The Nationals are going to surprise a lot of people this year. They have a brand new ballpark that looks to be a hitter's park, which will benefit the likes of Ryan Zimmerman, Austin Kearns, Nick Johnson, Lastings Milledge and Dmitri Young. They also have a pretty good pitching staff. Look for Rutgers grad Jonathan Bergmann to emerge as the ace before the year is out. They also boast one of the strongest bullpens in the majors. They aren't going to win the division, but they aren't the Nationals of old.

The Marlins are a young team in the midst of a rebuilding, but don't let their youth and inexperience fool you. Scott Olsen is the real thing. So is Sergio Mitre. With Miguel Cabrera gone, the Marlins are looking for an offensive leader to fill the void. Hanley Ramirez is one of the top 3 shortstops in the game, batting .332 with 125 runs scored and 51 stolen bases last year. He also posted 81 RBIs. Not bad for your leadoff man. Second baseman Dan Uggla led the current batch of fish with 31 home runs last year. Josh Willingham and Mike Jacobs are poised for breakout seasons and Luis Gonzalez adds a bit of winning experience to the youngest team in the majors. Like the Nationals, Florida is not going to win the division, but they are an up and coming good team.

That brings us to the Atlanta Braves, my pick to win the NL East Division. Not the trendy pick New York Mets; not my beloved Philadelphia Phillies. No one is talking about the Braves this spring, and that's just fine with them. If healthy, the Braves boast the best rotation in the East. gasp! Tim Hudson, Tom Glavine, John Smoltz, Mike Hampton and Chuck James. Four top tier veteran pitchers. The problem with this group is injuries. Smoltz is starting the season on the DL but only for the first few games. He is 40 years old now and injury is a serious risk factor now. Mike Hampton hasn't had a full season in years, including not playing at all last year. Nevertheless, when healthy, the Braves boast the most solid rotation in the league. No pitching rotation is without its some questions or risks and the Braves are no different. They just have a lot more upside than the other teams.

The Braves also boast an offense that compete with any team in the majors, and is better than most. Mark Teixeira, Chipper Jones, Jeff Francoeur, Brian McCann, Kelly Johnson and Matt Diaz. Chipper is still one of the best hitting third baseman in the majors, arguably the best in the NL. Mark Teixeira was the most significant acquisition during the season last year and is one of the best hitters in the NL. Brian McCann is one of the best hitting catchers in the majors. This is the most complete team in the NL.

That being said, the Braves will not win the Pennant. I had mulled this around for a while, but I just have no confidence in the Braves making it all the way through the playoffs. I barely have faith that they would make it out of the first round. I think that the Mets will win the NL Wild Card. The Phillies' pitching is way way too shaky and I think it will ultimately be their downfall. I pick Arizona to make it to the World Series over the Mets.

In the end, the Tigers will win the World Series over Arizona. The Braves have the most complete team in the NL, but are professional choke artists when it comes to the playoffs. The Mets pitching is shaky outside of Santana and Maine. Arizona's mighty one two punch of Webb and Haren put them in the best position to make it to the World Series.

Should be a great season.

MLB 2008: NL Central

The Chicago Cubs are again the team to beat in the NL Central. Carlos Zambrano is healthy and when that happens he is one of the best pitchers in the majors. Ted Lilly, Rich Hill, Jason Marquis, and Jon Lieber are all serviceable pitchers that will get the job done. This is your traditional pitching rotation. Four fairly decent guys and one star who can be relied on to stop any losing streak or skid. Oft injured pitcher Kerry Wood has been named as the opening day closer, but should he step on the mound (and inevitably injury himself for the season) Carlos Marmol is close on his heels. The Cubs have one of the better hitting lineups in the majors, led by Alfonso Soriano and Aramis Ramirez. Derrek Lee, Mark DeRosa, and Ryan Theriot fill out the lineup pretty nicely. There has been chatter the past two weeks about Baltimore trading second basemen Brian Roberts to the Cubs, which would significantly bolster the offense, but those talks seem to have dropped off. We will wait and see.
 
The Milwaukee Brewers made a few of the more questionable moves in the majors this offseason. First off, they let Johnny Estrada go to sign catcher Jason Kendall. Jason Kendall hasn't been good in years and is certainly not worth the money he makes. Kendal makes so much money that he is now being paid by three teams, Pittsburgh, Oakland and now Milwaukee. Estrada wasn't great, but catcher is a pretty thin position and he was decent and didn't make anything near what Kendall does. Unfortunately, this wasn't the worst move of their off season. They lost, or let go, closer Francisco Cordero, who had a resurgent season last year. To replace him they signed beleaguered closer Eric Gagne. Gagne had the longest saves streak in history and was the best closer in the majors a few years ago. He has been crap ever since. And that's only when he actually pitches. Gagne competes with Kerry Wood and Mark Prior for the most often injured star pitchers. Luckily for the Brewers set up man Derrick Turnbow has experience closing, although he lost that job to Cordero after a mid season meltdown a couple years ago. That being said, Milwaukee is going to contend for the division and the wild card this year. Led by ace (and winner of the most bizarre injuries ever award 3 years running) Ben Sheets, who when healthy (when), is as a good pitcher as there is in the majors. Jeff Suppan, Chris Capuano, Dave Bush and Claudio Vargas are good middle to back end rotations guys and Yovani Gallardo, although hurt, has potential to be a very good pitcher in this league. The Brewers have one of the best young lineups in the majors. NL MVP runner up Prince Fielder and NL Rookie of the Year Ryan Braun are going to compete with each other for this year's NL MVP. Along with Corey Hart, J.J. Hardy, Rickie Weeks and Bill Hall, they make up one of the best lineups in the league, as well as one of the youngest. This is going to be a really strong team for years to come.
 
The remaining teams in the NL Central will have a hard time competing with the Cubs and Brewers. However, the team with the best shot to do so is Houston. Roy Oswalt heads up an otherwise lack luster pitching rotation, but the team can definitely hit. Led by Carlos Lee and Lance Berkman, along with newly acquired Miguel Tejada and sophomore Hunter Pence, the Astros pose a serious threat on offense. They will score a lot of runs, but I fear that they may give up just as many.
 
Albert Pujols' St. Louis Cardinals are far removed from their World Series win of a couple years ago. That's not to say they don't still have a few weapons though. If Pujols can stay healthy then he can perennially contend for the NL MVP. Similarly, newly acquired third baseman Troy Glaus, if healthy, could seriously benefit from the move to the NL. Chris Duncan hit 21 homeruns and 70 RBIs last year and is looking to improve upon those numbers. The pitching, however, has way too many question marks. Ace Chris Carpenter hasn't pitched in almost a year and is going to be on the DL until the middle of the summer, and its a crapshoot on how good he will be once he actually does return. Adam Wainright is a candidate to take over as the ace, but he is still young and fairly unproven. After that, the talent drops off. This team just has too many holes to fill before it can legitimately contend in its own division, let alone the league.
 
Dusty Baker's Reds likewise have holes that they need to fill. Aaron Harang is a good pitcher and not a bad #1 starter. Bronson Arroyo has shown flashes of being a really good pitcher, but is way too inconsistent. Josh Fogg only won 10 games last year and that was with the monstrous Colorado offense behind him. No one else on the team even won 10 games last year. Their offense is pretty good, but still not even the best in their division. Adam Dunn is good for 40 homeruns (which is exactly how many he's hit three years in a row) but he strikes out more than almost anyone else in the league, still. Ken Griffey, Jr. is always an injury risk, but when healthy is still a Hall of Famer. Brandon Phillips and Endwin Encarnacion are both real good players, but the four of them can't carry the rest of the offense and just about the entire pitching staff. This team may end the season above the Cardinals, but not much above anything else.

MLB 2008: NL West

The National League is a little easier to predict than the AL, but not much and it is still just as intriguing. We'll start in the NL West. This is again the most competitive division in baseball, with four teams legitimately contending for the division title. The Arizona Diamondbacks are my pick to win the division this year. They added an ace in Dan Haren to a rotation that already boasts two former Cy-Young award winners, although Randy Johnson is not what he once was. Brandon Webb, on the other hand, continues to improve. Last year he won 18 games and sported an ERA of just shy over 3.00 with 194 Ks. Haren won 15 games on a weak Oakland team with an ERA just above Webb's at 3.07. Haren and Webb's numbers are remarkably similar. Haren won 15 games, Webb 18. Haren's ERA was 3.07, Webb's 3.01. Haren strukout 192 batters last year, Webb 194. Haren had a WHIP of 1.21, Webb had a 1.19 WHIP. The only stark difference is that Webb had 4 complete games and one shut out last year while Haren had none. Not a bad one, two punch. And even with Randy Johnson no longer the sure fire Hall of Famer that he was his first go around with Arizona, if he can stay healthy (a big if) he is good for at least 10 wins, which isn't bad for your 4th or 5th starter. Doug Davis is a solid number 3 or 4 pitcher coming off his best season yet in the majors. Sophomore Micah Owings is talented enough to win 12-15 games and should only improve as time goes on.

Arizona's offense is led by, in my opinion, the best all around player in the National League, Eric Byrnes. Byrnes hit .286 last season with 83 RBIs, 23 home runs and 50 stolen bases. He scored 103 runs and had an on base percentage of .353, which is above the league average. He is the unquestioned leader of a team that is very young and lacking in experience. That is not to say they lack talent. The team is chock full of untapped potential, particularly in outfielder Chris Young and first baseman Conor Jackson. The Diamondbacks do not have the most potent offense in the league, but they have also not hit their potential yet either. They have one of the best rotations in the league and an offense that is going to have to be reckoned with soon enough.

The NL Wild Card winner from last season, the Colorado Rockies, sport a offense that will once again contest for the most prolific team. Led by MVP runner up Matt Holliday and Rookie of the Year runner up Troy Tulowitski, the Rockies have one of the best offenses in the majors. Holliday hit a ridiculous 137 RBIs last year with a .340 batting average to go along with his 37 home runs. His home run total was actually a little low compared with the rest of his stats, considering where he plays half his games (Humidor be damned), so look for those numbers to pick up this season. In his first full season in the majors after replacing every hunter's favorite shortstop Clint Barmes, Tulowitski had 99 RBIs, 24 home runs and sported a .291 average, all as a rookie at a traditionally powerless position. Throw Brad Hawpe, Garret Atkins and Todd Helton into the mix and you can see why they were so feared last year.

Unfortunately, even with the Humidor, playing at Coors Field has a negative affect on your pitching. Staff ace Jeff Francis did win 17 games last year, in part due to the fact that his team scores a load of runs. Francis sported an ERA of 4.22, which is certainly not bad for a Rockies pitcher. Unfortunately, that's where the good news stops. Not a single pitcher other than Francis currently on the team won more than 8 games last year, inclduing Kip Wells who played for Pittsburgh and Josh Towers, who played for Toronto. (Note: Wells is starting the year in the bullpen) Aaron Cook is a decent enough pitcher, but really only a #3 or 4 guy, not someone I'd want backing up my ace. They are going to struggle on the mound, but this is nothing they're not used to. They made it all the way to the World Series last year on hitting and Francis' pitching alone, so it's certainly not out of the question for them to do it again. They are going to compete with San Diego for the Wild Card again this year, as well as for second place in their own division, and they may not win either one.

San Diego, while not having the high flying offense that Colorado does, has a solid team once again this year. Their offense is led by hard hitting first baseman Adrian Gonzalez and shortstop Khalil Greene. However, San Diego's real talent lies in its pitching. The Padres' rotation is comprised of Cy-Young winners Jake Peavy and Greg Maddux, Chris Young, Randy Wolf and Justin Germano. Peavy is one of the top five pitchers in the majors and arguably the best in the NL (although that argument got a lot harder with the addition of Santana into the NL). Maddux, while getting up there in age and losing a bit of his former luster, is still a serious pitcher to contend with. The sure fire Hall of Famer is a lock for at least 12 wins a year. Big Unit, Jr. Chris Young is turning into a perennial All Star and Randy Wolf is about as good a #4 guy as you'll find. Germano could be the #3 pitcher on a lot of NL teams and is looking to improve this year. At the back end of the bullpen is the aging but still dominant all time saves leader Trevor Hoffman. He's no longer the best closer in the game, but he is still in the top 10 in the league. Even though San Diego's offense isn't as good as Colorado's, their pitching is heads and tails better and that is why I think they will beat them out for second in the division.

The Los Angeles Dodgers have a new skipper in town, former Yankees manager Joe Torre. They have a pitching rotation, when healthy, that can compete with any team in the NL, headed by Brad Penny, Derek Lowe and Chad Billingsley. After the departure of Eric Gagne, Takashi Saito cemented his place as one of the best closers in the game. Their offense is led by Russel Martin, who, after batting .293 with 87 RBIs, 19 homeruns and 21 steals, solidified himself as a top 3 catcher last year. He is also perhaps the most the versatile player in the league. Dodgers Third Base coach, and former Phillies shortstop Hall of Famer Larry Bowa, says that Martin could play his old position. Bill Bavasi, current GM in Seattle, says he is the best third baseman in the NL. He's a catcher that stole 21 times last year. What's that tell you?

The addition of Andruw Jones, despite having his worst year in the majors last year, seriously bolsters their lineup. Jones has been one of the best hitters in the majors in the last decade and is still only 31 years old and I am pretty confident that he will bounce back this year. Added to that are Jeff Kent, James Loney, Andre Ethier, Rafael Furcal, and leadoff specialist Juane Pierre, as well as Normar Garciaparra for at least 10 or 11 games. This is a very competitive and solid team from top to bottom. Unfortunately, their pitching is not the best in the division and their offense is not the best in the division. They do have the best closer in the West, but only so many games are won in the 9th inning. I predict that the Dodgers have a good year and wind up 4th in the division. Like I said, it's the best division in baseball.

The black sheep of the division family is San Francisco. To sum up the Giants, I tell this one story. Last week they played their full time starters and put ace Barry Zito on the mound against their AAA affiliate in a Spring Training exhibition game. They lost 4-3. Zito pitched 6 2/3 innings and gave up all four runs. The Giants were only able to score 3 runs against a bunch of minor league players. Their lineup is made up of newly acquired Aaron Rowand, Bengie Molina, Ray Durham, Randy Winn, Omar Vizquel, Rich Aurilia, Jose Castillo and Dave Roberts. Not a single player hit more than 90 RBIs last year. Rowand, in his best year ever, hit 89 RBIs on the highest scoring offense in the NL playing in hitter friendly Citizen's Bank Park. Rowand had a lot of protection arond him last year. This year, he is the best hitter. Rowand is a good player, but not as good as he was last year and definitely not as good to be considered the best player on the team. Rowand is a great guy to have in the locker room, something that is sorely needed to mend the wounds of the Barry Bonds era in San Fran, but even his team building locker room demeanor is not going to help this team hit.

The Giants pitching is not as bad as the hitting, and in all actuality, is not that bad in general. Barry Zito is still the ace on the team, and making the monstrous money that he is, he will likely be their ace for a long time to come. They have some very good up and coming young pitchers however. Noah Lowry, Matt Cain, and Tim Lincecum are all good, young pitchers who will only continue to get better with time. Lowry led the team last year with 14 wins, although he needs to get his WHIP down. Nevertheless, despite having some pitching potential, the Giants are going to be last in the West, and in all likelihood around the bottom of the NL. Let the post-Barry era begin.

MLB 2008: AL West

The AL West is once again a one team show. Even with the addition of Erik Bedard in Seattle, the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim, California, West Coast, United States, Western Hemisphere, Earth, are still the team to beat in the West. The most underrated player in the American League, Vladimir Guerrero, is poised to have his best season in years with the added protection that Torii Hunter brings. Garrett Anderson and Gary Matthews, Jr. are really good second tier guys. Howie Kendrick is a star on the rise and Chone Figgins is always good for 60 RBIs and 40 stolen bases. The Angels' pitching is a bit of a question this year however. Ace John Lackey is starting the season injured and perennially injured pitcher Kelvim Escobar might have to have season (or possibly even career) ending surgery. Ervin Santana is a decent #3 guy, as is newcomer Jon Garland. Jered Weaver has the stuff to be a staff ace, but has not shown the consistency needed to be number 1. Closer Francisco Rodriguez has been the best closer in the majors over the past few years, but is disgruntled over a contract dispute, which could affect him this season. Nevertheless, the AL West is weak and the Angels are the most talented team.

That being said, the Mariners will give LAA stronger competition than they have in recent years. Despite having a poor spring, the addition of strikeout king Erik Bedard from Baltimore will significantly bolster an already good rotation. Bedard will take the pressure off of young ace King Felix Hernandez and allow him to fully develop and flourish without such an intense spotlight on him. Carlos Silva is a serious number 3 pitcher, and Miguel Batista led the team last year in wins with 16. And they still have Jarrod Washburn. Oh, and J.J. Putz. Their offense, however, is not as strong. The Mariner's lack a legitimate star bat, with Raul Ibanez leading the team in RBIs and second in home runs. Infuriatingly inconsistent Adrian Beltre is, well, infuriatingly inconsistent. Ichiro is still the best hitter in the game, but lacks power and RBI potential at the top of the lineup. He does get on base, a lot, but besides Ibanez and Beltre there isn't anyone to drive him in. Their lineup is chock full of second tier guys who just can't quite get over that hump, Yuniesky Betancourt, Brad Wilkerson, Kenji Johjima, Jose Lopez, and Miguel Cairo. Richie Sexson was once a great player, but those days are long gone. Seattle will be happy if he has a batting average above .230. The Mariners are a really strong pitching team, but they are seriously lacking on offense.

Oakland is also lacking in bat skill. Resurgent Jack Cust led the team last year with 26 home runs and 82 RBIs. They are good numbers, but not what you want your top production guy to be. Their pitching, like Seattle, is better than their offense. Rich Harden, despite not having a good year last year, largely due to injuries, has some of the best stuff in the AL. Joe Blanton picked up the slack for Harden last year, winning 14 games with an ERA under 4.00. Huston Street, when he can stay healthy, which is a big if, is a top 10 closer who has yet to meet his full potential. Unfortunately for Oakland, that is pretty much where the talent ends. But I loathe to ever count out a Billy Beane team. He always sees things that we mortals fail to notice at first glance.

Texas *****. Sorry President Bush, but when a team becomes a dumping ground for discarded mediocre Phillies pitching, you know you're in trouble. Ace (if you can call him that) Kevin Millwood, Vicente Padilla, and Robinson Tejeda all wore Phillies pinstripes and were all moved on. Not to mention Sydney Ponson is a Ranger. I think that about sums up their pitching. They also don't have a closer with a secure job. Former set up man turned closer turned set up man turned closer turn set up man Akinori Otsuka is, as you probably guessed, no longer the closer. C.J. Wilson was named the team's closer, but Joaquin Benoit is right on his heels. And you never know, Otsuka is always just one pitch away from being a former set up man turned closer. Unfortunately for Texas, their hitting isn't much better. They were led by SS Michael Young, who is a legitimate top 5 player at his position. But he's not Rollins or Jeter or Tulowitski or Guillen. Young had 94 RBIs last year but a paltry 9 home runs. Their number two RBI guy was, gasp, former Phillies Marlon Byrd. That's right folks. The Texas Rangers have 4 former Phillies on their team. Ian Kinsler is poised for a breakout a year after hitting 20 home runs and 61 RBIs in his first full year. Josh Hamilton had a great comeback year last year for the Reds and catcher Jarrod Saltalamacchia is another young player on the verge of a breakout year. But none of these players are proven other than Michael Young. Marlon Byrd came out of nowhere to hit .307 with 70 RBIs and 10 home runs last year. What?! We saw flashes of that here in Philly but it was sporadic at best. The potential is surely there, but it is unproven, which is the theme of the whole offense.

I really had a hard time deciding who I thought would win the American League Pennant this year. The AL is a really tough league with a ton of great teams. It really could be a toss up between Boston, NYY, Detroit, Cleveland, LAA, even Seattle makes a case because of their serious pitching. The trendy pick is to pick Boston to win again and I think it's so close this year that I'm going to go with Detroit. I really like what Detroit has done. They have always been right on the cusp of being a juggernaut team like New York and Boston and I believe they made the necessary moves to put them over the edge. I don't like their pitching as much as the other top teams in the AL, and I know that traditional thinking says pitching wins in the playoffs, but their offense is just so good I think they'll just outscore everyone. No one's pitching is strong enough one to five to contend with this potent lineup. Detroit makes it to the World Series over Boston and Cleveland will win the Wild Card. I hate to ever bet against the Yankees but Cleveland is just too good this year.

MLB 2008: AL Central

The AL Central is going to be a lot of fun to watch. I pick the Tigers to win the division. They have one of the fiercest lineups around. Magglio Ordonez, newly acquired Miguel Cabrera, and Carlos Guillen all hit over 100 RBIs last year. Gary Sheffield, Curtis Granderson, Brandon Inge, Jacque Jones, Pudge Rodriguez, and Placido Polanco round out the lineup. Sheffie, Granderson and Inge had 70+ RBIs and Polanco is one of the best second baseman in the league, not to mention he posts a .300+ average every year.

When Dontrelle Willis is your fifth starter, you know your pitching rotation is pretty solid. The D-Train has admittedly derailed in recent years, but still shows flashes of his old self at times and perhaps a change in scenery is what he needs. Justin Verlander has solidified himself as a legitimate ace and superstar in this league. Jeremy Bonderman is consistently a solid pitcher (although he did not have a real great year last year). Nate Robertson should also win 15 games and Kenny Rogers is still somehow a legitimate starter in this league. This is not the most stunning rotation in the league, and its not even better than rival Cleveland's. Closer Todd Jones is good for a 4.00+ ERA, but is also good for 30+ saves. Nevertheless, the offense is so good they are still going to win a ton of games. The Tigers are the Phillies of the AL. They have some legitimate pitching stars, but also some holes. Regardless, they should score enough runs to make up for any pitching faults.

Like I said, Cleveland has a better pitching rotation than Detroit. With the departure of Johan Santana to the NL, ace C.C. Sabathia is without a doubt the best pitcher in the division, and arguably the best in the AL. He won 19 games last year, with 4 shut outs, 209 Ks and an ERA of 3.21. Yikes. Fausto Carmona came out of nowhere and also won 19 games with an ERA of 3.06. That's right, better than Sabathia's. Jake Westbrook has yet to give up a run in 4 games in Spring Training. I know it's only Spring Training, but that is still quite an accomplishment. Cliff Lee and Paul Byrd are still legitimately good pitchers. I would love for the bottom of my rotation to be those two guys. They also have a closer that can cause some heartburn in Joe Borowski with a 5.07 ERA last year, but he still got 45 saves. While their offense isn't as potent as Detroit, it's nothing to sneeze at. Grady Sizemore, Travis Hafner, Victor Martinez, Casey Blake, Johnny Peralta and Ryan Garko. Not a bad lineup for sure.

What was once one of the best divisions in the league is now just a two team race. With the departure of Johan Santana and Torii Hunter, the Minnesota Twins (who were the 3rd best team in the division even with those players) fall farther behind Detroit and Cleveland. They still have some serious skill in the lineup with 2006 AL MVP Justin Morneau, Joe Mauer, and Michael Cuddyer. Delmon Young is poised to improve upon his already good numbers from Tampa Bay. But the talent drops off after that.

Losing the best pitcher in baseball is obviously an enormous blow. Especially because he was it, the entire staff. Rookie sensation Francisco Liriano is coming off of Tommy John Surgery after not pitching at all last season. While pitchers often times come back stronger from Tommy John, Liriano is young (only his second full season) and hasn't pitched in over a year. He is far from a lock, but is still the best pitcher on the staff. This is also bad. Livan Hernandez, Scott Baker, and Pat Neshak are all second and third tier pitchers. They're not bad pitchers to have round out your rotation, but not a group I'd want at the top. While Carlos Silva is not an ace or even someone I'd like to have as my number 2, losing him to the Mariners will definitely have an impact on the Twins. Hernandez is just a shadow of his old self and Baker and Neshak are unproven. The one area Minnesota is without a doubt superior to the other teams in their division is at closer. Joe Nathan is one of the top closers in the league, with 37 saves and a 1.88 ERA last season. Minnesota is clearly having problems holding on to its top players, unable to compete with richer, bigger market teams. I do not know enough about their minor league depth, but they are going to have to continue to home grow their talent if they want to compete in the tough American League.

The Chicago White Sox are another once was from the AL Central, although there is a lot of talk of them being a dark horse surprise this season. Regardless, even if they do have a good year, they are not going to be any better than third and are certainly not making the playoffs. Their rotation is also shaky, albeit more proven than Minnesota. Mark Buehrle threw a no-hitter last season and was one of the most talked about pitchers at the trade deadline, but he did not really have much of a year. Even with the no-no, he notched only 10 wins with a respectable 3.63 ERA but only a 5.15 K/9. Javier Vazquez and Jose Contreras are two proven but over the hill pitchers. The three of them combined for 35 wins last year. They do have the second best closer in the division in Bobby Jenks, but he can be erratic at times.

The White Sox offense is respectable, but not outstanding. No one hit over 100 RBIs, with the aging Thome leading the pack at 96. They have a lineup that could seriously contend in the NL, but they are going to get pounded in the American League.

Then there are the Royals. They have some rising young stars, but they are still not even as strong as Chicago or Minnesota. It should be a better year than normal in KC, but that's not saying much.

MLB 2008: AL East

We have come to the start of another season of Major League Baseball, and not a moment too soon. After a tumultuous and not all together flattering offseason, it is good that we can start talking about what's going on on the field, rather than talking about what may or may not have been injected into Roger Clemen's buttocks.

This season the Boston Red Sox will defend their second World Series of the decade after not winning one for almost a century. This could be the first season since 1992 to not see Bonds, Clemens, Piazza or Sosa (Sammy that is) on the back of a major league jersey. Greg Maddux will hit 350 wins and the Big Unit Randy Johnson needs 16 wins to reach 300. John Smoltz needs only 25 Ks to reach 3000 career strikeouts. We will see Ken Griffey, Jr. hit his 600th home run, as well as Manny Ramirez and most likely Gary Sheffield hitting their 500th. This season holds endless possibilities for excitement and intrigue. Lets get started.

Because there is so much to talk about, I am going to break this down into installments, by division. We start in the American League East, the division of the reigning World Series champs Boston Red Sox. It seems in all likelihood that Boston will again win the division. They are as complete a team as you'll find, ever. They can hit, field, and pitch. They had four players last year with over 80 RBIs, three players with over 20 home runs, and three pitchers with 15 or more wins and Curt Schilling, a sure fire Hall of Famer, was hurt for a good part of the year. They have an incredibly solid bullpen headed up by Mike Timlin, Javier Lopez and Hideki Okajima, with arguably the best closer in the league in Jonathan Papelbon to round out the back end. That being said, they play in the same division as the New York Yankees, the most successful sports franchise in history.

The Yankees have an offensive lineup that is on its own level. They re-signed Alex Rodriguez after he had one of the best seasons in baseball history. Jorge Posada is coming off one of the best seasons of his career and Robinson Cano has solidified himself as a top flight second baseman. They have a somewhat aging but still potent outfield with Godzilla Hideki Matsui, Johnny Damon, Bobby Abreu and Melky Cabrera. And Derek Jeter is still their shortstop. The Yankees pitching is more of a question. Chien-Ming Wang, who has been a genuine ace the past couple years, has had a poor Spring. Andy Pettitte has spent a good part of his spring dealing with the Congressional steroid rocket, which could conceivably have an affect on his psyche. Moose is 39 years old and not the same stud he once was. Philip Hughes and Ian Kennedy are expected to be ridiculous pitchers, but this will be their first full season, which is always a crapshoot. Mariano Rivera is 38 and had a tough year last year, his age perhaps catching up with him. Flamethrowing phenom Joba Chamberlain could replace Rivera if he falters this season, but otherwise he is going to stay as the set up man for the season.

The Toronto Blue Jays are an intriguing team this year, but unfortunately for them they play in the same division as the Red Sox and Yankees. Nevertheless, they have a solid lineup headed up by Vernon Wells, newly re-signed Alex Rios, Scott Rolen and the still dangerous Big Hurt Frank Thomas. They have a solid pitching rotation with Roy Halladay, A.J. Burnett, Dustin McGowan and Shaun Marcum. The Tampa Bay Rays (stupid name change) are going to be better than ever, which is admittedly not much of a feat. That being said, they have an exciting young lineup with, when healthy, one of the best starting pitchers in Scott Kazmir. The Baltimore Orioles, on the other hand, are poised to have one of their worst years in recent history. Daniel Cabrera is a strikeout machine, but I have better control than he does. The only serious pitcher on their team last year was ace Erik Bedard who was traded to Seattle. Cabrera won 9 games last year with an ERA of 5.55 and a WHIP of 1.54. He also had the most wins of any of the current starters. Nick Markakis is the only truly legitimate threat at the plate with 112 RBIs last year. Aubrey Huff had 72 RBIs last year, but he is as hot and cold as you can get. Luke Scott has potential, but has yet to pan out. Ramon Hernandez and Melvin Mora are both past their prime to be legitimate threats and Brian Roberts gets on base and steals bases, but does not hit a ton of home runs or RBIs. It is time to rebuild.