Labor Day Push

Labor Day has come and gone and that means the end ofsummer, a sad occurrence for all of us, particularly those of us whose jobs get more intense after the holiday. The silver lining is, of course, that the baseball season really starts to heat up now with the final playoff push. Lucky for us, this is shaping up to be one of the most exciting runs in recent memory. Lets go through each division and the wild cards.

AL East
"The AL East seems to almost be a foregone conclusion." I said that in a post on July 12 and at the time I was supremely confident that I was right. Today I am less confident in that statement, particularly with the Yankees' recent sweep of the Red Sox. I was even less confident last week, saying that I thought the Yankees would push past the Red Sox and take the division. However, the Yankees have now lost two in a row and are 5-5 in their previous ten games, while the Red Sox have won three in a row, going 6-4 in their last ten. Despite the fact that the Bronx Bombers have finally gotten their roster healthy and their rotation set, the Red Sox still boast the premier pitching staff in the AL and that's the name of the game in fall baseball. Even if the Yankees sweep the Red Sox again in Boston (which I find very unlikely) I think they are too far behind with too little time to make up that much ground. Red Sox win the AL East.

AL Central
I, along with just about ever other baseball writer in the country, got it dead wrong with the Twins and the Central in general. Never in a million years could anyone have foreseen the season that Johan Santana has had, particularly the second half, where he was 40-4 coming into this year. In his last six games, Santana is 3-3. In those six games he has given up a total of 41 runs and 17 runs with 39 strikeouts (17 of those came in one game however). Minnesota is 10.5 games back of the Indians in the division and 7 back in the wild card race, going 4-6 in their last ten games. My reasoning for predicting that the Twins take the wild card in July was that Santana is the most dominant second half pitcher in the majors. That obviously has not worked out and neither will the Twins. Although, at this point, this year's playoffs are the least of their concerns, with Torii Hunter almost certainly departing after this year and Santana leaving after next season, both very unhappy with the current direction of the team.

My pick to win the division, the Tigers, went 11-18 in the month of August and have all but taken themselves out of playoff contention. The Indians, on the other hand, went 17-11, winning their last six of the month. Detroit is six games behind the Indians and 2.5 back in the wild card race. They are not going to catch the Indians and I do not think they will catch the Yankees, although that is more likely. They were the team to beat for a long time this season in the Central, but they are now, for all intents and purposes, out of it.

The lone team left standing at this point is Cleveland. They have gone 9-1 in their previous ten games and are just tearing through teams. C.C. Sabathia has proven that he is the Cy-Young caliber pitcher that everyone thought he was and Fausto Carmona has come out of nowhere to be one of the most dominant pitchers in the majors this season. The Indians gave up more than five runs only six times in August and gave up three or less runs fifteen times. They can score runs as well, scoring five or more runs thirteen times last month. This was once a very tight division, but it is no longer so. The Indians win the AL Central.

AL West
One of the few predictions made in July that I am going to stick with is that the Angels will win the West, without a doubt. The only team that was even competing for the division was the Mariners and they have now lost nine of their last ten and are now six back of Los Angeles of Anaheim of California of North America of Western Hemisphere of Earth of the Milky Way. Nobody can compete with the Angels, and this is a team that does not score a ton of runs. But they play a lot of small ball and have a dominant pitching staff. The pitching staff as a whole has a combined ERA of 4.18. John Lackey and Kelvim Escobar have been unstoppable and Francisco Rodriguez is continually one of the top three or four closers in the game. Oh, and they have Vladimir Guerrero, the most underrated player in the majors and I argue the best hitter over the last decade. He has had an above .300 average every year since his second year playing in the majors and has hit above .300 every full year. He has a career slugging percentage of .580 with over 100 RBIs every year since 1998 except for 2003 when he only had 394 at bats. The man is a machine. Just imagine what his career numbers would have been like if he hadn't spent his first eight years with the Expos. Needless to say, the Angeles win the West.

AL Wild Card
The wild card race is tight, although not as tight as the NL race. New York, Seattle, Detroit and Toronto are all within 5.5 games of each other. Seattle looked like it was going to run away with the wild card three weeks ago, but have lost nine of their last ten. Fortunately for them, none of the teams contending for the wild card are on any kind of a tear. The other three teams have a combined record of 16-14 in their last ten games. That being said, I think that they have put themselves out of it. The Yankees are just too good to not make the playoffs and if they weren't so far out of the division, I would say they would make a run for that too. The Yankees take the Wild card.

NL East
Oh boy, this is where it gets exciting. The NL is wide open, the East in particular. The Phillies swept the Mets in four games last week and won five in a row before dropping three straight. The Mets have won four straight since the Phillies series. Oh yea, the Braves are still right in the thick of things. This division is almost impossible to predict, but I think the Mets are too good and the Phillies blew their shot after they lost three in a row. The Mets' lineup is too potent and their pitching, despite being old, is pretty solid, particularly with the return of Pedro Martinez. The Mets hold on to take the East.

NL Central
The Central is even tighter than the East. The Cubs continue to look like the team they were always supposed to be and the Brewers youth seems to have caught up with them. Nevertheless, they remain only 1.5 games back behind Chicago, with St. Louis only a half game behind them, and that is without Chris carpenter. Carlos Zambrano really needs to become consistent, as he has been all over the place this season. If he returns to his dominant form, I think they will be hard to beat. The Brewers' pitching has been very spotty over the past month, with Chris Capuano and Jeff Suppan going winless in over 10 games each. If they can turn it around, and with the return of ace Ben Sheets, then they can overcome the still underachieving Cubs. The Cardinals continue to surprise everyone, despite not having Chris Carpenter and now Scott Rolen. But they do have that impressive first baseman guy, Albert something or other. Nevertheless, I think the Cubs' lineup is too good and I think now that he has his contract settled, Zambrano will turn it back on. The Cubs win the Central.

NL West
We got from one tight race to another. Every team is still in it in the West with the exception of the Giants. But they've had enough excitement for one decade anyway. San Diego currently leads the division by one game over the Diamondbacks, but that will most likely change three or four more times before the season is over. The Dodgers are four games back and the upstart Rockies only a game behind them. Neither the Dodgers or the Rockies are going to catch San Diego or Arizona, but it will certainly be a lot of fun watching them try, particularly Colorado. The Rockies finally have a staff that can pitch, in Coors Field and out. Their lineup is young and a lot of fun to watch. The D-Backs, despite having the ugliest uniforms in the majors, are also young and a lot of fun to watch. Last year's Cy-Young award winner Brandon Webb is making a great case for a repeat this year. Eric Byrnes has cemented himself as one of the best and most complete players in the majors, with 20 HRs, 77 RBIs, and 39 SBs. Chris B. Young is making a strong case for rookie of the year and 3B Mark Reynolds has all but guaranteed himself a full time job.

Unfortunately for them, the best rotation in the NL plays in San Diego. Jake Peavy and Chris Young are battling each other for the lowest ERA in the majors. Greg Maddux is a future hall of famer and is the team pitching mentor. And he's the number three man. And Trevor Hoffman is just the all-time saves leader. While they could use some stronger hitting, it is nothing to stick your nose up at. Adrian Gonzalez is the best hitter on the team and one of the best hitters in the majors. He flys below the radar because he plays first base, which is full of big hitters. But this kid has yet to achieve his potential and when he does he will sure be something special. Milton Bradley has provided some serious pop since being traded from Oakland for a sack of balls. I said it before and I'll say it again, this team's pitching is just too good. The Padres take the West.

NL Wild Card
This is a, you guessed it, tight race. The Dodgers and the Phillies are both three games behind the Diamondbacks for the wild card, with the Rockies, Brewers, Cardinals, and Braves all bunched up behind them. I think the Dodgers are done. They appeared to have peaked too early and are not going to catch up to their western fellows. The Phillies are the Phillies. I think they will make a strong surge towards the division and the wild card, but come up short for both in the end. None of the other teams have a realistic shot at overcoming their deficits and overtaking Arizona. The Diamondbacks take the Wild Card.

Should be a great final month. Check back often for continuous updates. It looks to be quite the wild ride.